By Yasmim Araújo Lopes, Project Analyst at IDIS, and Marcelo Modesto, Project Manager at IDIS

Brazil still tends to treat extreme weather events as exceptions, responding only after their impacts are already being felt. This year, however, forecasts of a new El Niño offer an opportunity to change that pattern—to move from reacting to crises toward anticipating and preparing for them.

Climate monitoring institutions in Brazil and around the world already point to a high probability that El Niño will persist through April 2027, with conditions expected to strengthen throughout 2026 and a greater likelihood of a very strong episode between September and December. Against this backdrop, governments, social investors, and civil society organizations must begin incorporating climate risk into their strategies and planning.

The heightened risks associated with El Niño, compounded by the effects of climate change that are already being felt, extend far beyond environmental concerns. They cut across virtually every social issue. Health, education, food security, livelihoods, social assistance, housing, and mobility can all be directly affected by heat waves, droughts, floods, and wildfires. Even organizations that do not work specifically on climate issues may face greater demand for their services, rising costs, and disruptions to their operations.

In this context, climate adaptation can no longer be seen solely as an environmental priority. It is increasingly a prerequisite for ensuring the continuity of public policies, social programs, and philanthropic and social investments. Protecting communities also means ensuring that organizations can continue delivering essential services and results precisely when they are needed most.

The challenge is even greater when we consider the capacity of Brazilian municipalities and communities to respond. Data from AdaptaBrasil, a national climate risk and adaptation platform developed by Brazil’s Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, show that 3,679 municipalities have low or very low adaptive capacity to cope with disasters associated with river flooding, flash floods, and urban flooding. In a country with more than 5,500 municipalities, this means that a substantial share of local governments face significant limitations in their ability to adapt to these risks. The figures make one thing clear: forecasting extreme events is not enough. Prevention requires practical measures, from strengthening local management and coordination with public authorities to investing in communities’ ability to prepare for and respond to crises.

This is where climate justice becomes tangible. It is not only about responding to disasters after they strike, but about creating the conditions for communities that are more exposed to climate risks and have fewer resources to cope with them to be better protected before impacts occur.

Preparation begins long before a cold front, flood, or heat wave arrives. It begins when organizations turn climate forecasts into practical questions for management and planning: What could change in the communities where we work? Which groups are most likely to be affected? Which activities may need to be adapted? What resources need to be in place before critical periods begin?

Asking these questions helps embed climate risk into everyday decision-making, making social programs and investments more resilient in the face of uncertainty.

It is equally important to recognize that El Niño will not affect every part of Brazil in the same way. Brazil’s continental scale and significant regional differences in climate mean that the same phenomenon can create very different risks across the country. Current projections point to reduced rainfall in the Amazon region and Brazil’s Northeast, higher temperatures across much of the country, potentially drier conditions in the Southeast and Central-West regions during the Southern Hemisphere spring, and heavier rainfall in Southern Brazil, increasing the risk of floods, waterlogging, and landslides.

Different risks require different responses, designed around the realities of each place. For Brazil, this makes locally led adaptation particularly important: local communities, civil society organizations, and knowledge must be at the center of climate adaptation strategies rather than relying on one-size-fits-all solutions.

For philanthropy and the broader social sector, this means reviewing programs and portfolios through a climate lens, developing continuity plans for essential services, investing proactively in the adaptation of facilities and community spaces, strengthening local cooperation networks, and designing more flexible funding mechanisms that can respond quickly as conditions change.

None of these measures can eliminate the possibility of disasters. But together, they can reduce harm, protect essential services, and strengthen communities’ capacity to respond. The sooner philanthropic funders, social investors, and civil society organizations incorporate climate risks into their decisions, the greater the opportunity to prevent human, social, and institutional losses.

The El Niño forecast for 2026 is more than a climate challenge. It is a test of our ability to learn from recent crises and act before they happen again.

The forecast is already available. So is the knowledge. What needs to change now is how we turn that information into planning and action—grounded in science, shaped by local realities, and centered on people, especially those most vulnerable to climate impacts.